Before selling the turnaround vision, you need a clear numerical target: how many rooms (and conferences) must sell each day to stop “bleeding red” and start covering the operating bill.

1. Re-confirm the Main Cost Block

From the earlier cost model (salaries, utilities, marketing, F&B, maintenance) the monthly fixed outflow sits between R397,000 and R613,000. Converting to a daily cost band (÷ 30 days):

Cost Scenario	Daily Overhead (fixed)	Add Variable Cost
Low-Range	R13,200	+ R300 × Occupied Room
High-Range	R20,400	+ R300 × Occupied Room

2. Realistic Average Daily Rate (ADR)

Luxury Durban guesthouses report a 2025 ADR between R2,800 and R4,000; 5-star hotels averaged R3,974 in March 2025. Using a conservative ADR of R3,200 keeps pricing competitive while the reputation rebuilds.

Net room contribution after variable service cost:
R3,200 – R300 ≈ R2,900 per sold room.

3. Room-Only Break-Even Occupancy

Cost Scenario	Rooms to Sell per Day (10 keys)	Occupancy %
Low cost (R13,200)	5 rooms	50%
High cost (R20,400)	7 rooms	70%

Key take-away: 5–7 rooms daily must be booked just to pay the bills.

4. Conference & Ancillary Boost

Auberge’s boardroom can add R5,500–R7,500 revenue for a full-day hire with catering (25–30 pax). Each one-day conference replaces two room-nights of break-even sales.

Scenario	Revenue Example	Break-Even Result
4 rooms (R11,600 net) + 1 day-conference (R6,000 net)	R17,600	Covers low-cost day
6 rooms + 1 conference	R24,000+	Covers high-cost day

5. Ramp-Up Timeline Reality Check

Independent upscale hotels typically reach market-level RevPAR after 1.5–2 years. Expect:

• Months 1-6: 25-35% occupancy (2–3 rooms/night) → still loss-making.
• Months 7-12: 40-50% (4–5 rooms) with aggressive OTA relisting & local corporate sales → flirt with break-even on low-cost days.
• Year 2: >60% average (6+ rooms) → first meaningful profits.

6. Daily Dashboard Targets

Metric on TV Screen	Daily Target
Room sales	5 (low cost) / 7 (high cost)
Conference sales	0–1 (each conference = 2 rooms)
Minimum revenue	R13,200 – R20,400

Colour-code the profit bar:
Red < 80% of target
Amber 80–100%
Green > 100%

7. Action Steps This Week

• Rate Strategy: Publish opening offer R2,950 BB; shoulder-season special R2,600 for first 50 bookings.
• Corporate Mail-shot: Target Durban North law firms & med-reps with R550 pp day-package.
• OTA Fast-Track: Listing priority on Booking.com and Expedia; activate Genius & Accelerator for six months.
• Dynamic Pricing: Load high-season cap R4,200; low-season floor R2,500.
• Dashboard Hook-up: Feed daily PMS export (rooms sold, ADR) + your staff-cost plugin to the Chart.js screen.

8. What “Day 1” Looks Like

Scenario	Calculation	Profit/Loss
Fixed overhead	R13,200
Rooms sold	3 × R2,900 = R8,700	–R4,500
+ One 25-pax board meeting (R6,000 net)	Flip to +R1,500	Profit

Focus for the Team

“5 rooms or 1 conference” every single day. Hit that consistently for 90 days, and the momentum (guest reviews, repeat corporates, OTA algorithms) will carry Auberge out of the red.